Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Anthropic 84.7%+2.5ptFührend unter 21 OptionenMargenbereinigt: Die Rohquoten summierten sich auf über 100 % und wurden normalisiert.
Marktqualitat
74 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
3442,5 €
Liquidität
46.002 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
2.3 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
+2.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
21. Juli 26, 00:34 UTC1. Okt. 26, 03:59 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Polymarket#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Polymarket#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSeptember 2026 AI model releases
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.