Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseVenezuela 95%Führend unter 73 Optionen
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58
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet12. März 24, 16:14 UTC1. Jan. 40, 22:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUnited nations - will it stand by 2040?
Manifold MarketsIran coup attempt by which date?
PolymarketRussia coup attempt in 2026?
PolymarketChina coup attempt before 2027?
PolymarketWhen Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves the same way as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17829/coup-detat-likelihood/, unless a country is not listed there, in which case it will be resolved according to the same criteria and in the same spirit.
- Copying the criteria from there:
- A coup d'etat is an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority.
- Coups are often proceeded by political unrest/instability, and can often serve as a turning point in a nation's history.
- Wide speculation exists on the possibility of coups in various countries.
- Resolution Criteria
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Venezuela mit 95% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040? entschieden?
- Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040? soll am 1. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves the same way as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17829/coup-detat-likelihood/, unless a country is not listed there, in which case it will be resolved according to the same criteria and in the same spirit.