Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
KIOne-Off13JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseAutonomous AI math researcher 89.6%Führend unter 3 Optionen
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet19. Sept. 25, 19:41 UTC1. Jan. 40, 20:25 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
- Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
- Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
- If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
- Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Autonomous AI math researcher mit 90% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? entschieden?
- Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? soll am 1. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves to the event which happens first: