Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseOpenAI 94.7%+59.0ptFührend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+74.7 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten
5. Sept. 26, 21:51 UTC31. Dez. 34, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves to the company whose AI model is credited with doing the majority of the work in the first solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.
- Resolves on Clay Institute announcement or earlier on broad expert consensus that the proof is correct.
- Resolves N/A if no AI-led solution by end of 2034.
- If a claimed solution is under serious review at close, the market will be extended until it's confirmed or rejected.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 132.799,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.316,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 322.392,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem??
- Manifold Markets bewertet OpenAI mit 95% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? entschieden?
- Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? soll am 31. Dezember 2034 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves to the company whose AI model is credited with doing the majority of the work in the first solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.