Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 25.07.2026, 08:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore September 2026 5.2%-11.0ptFührend unter 13 Optionen
Prognostiker
64
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vorgestern
Veraltet8. Aug. 25, 18:3730. Aug. 26, 18:36
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Before August 20262%
Plattformen vergleichen· Before September 2026
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBeste insgesamt90% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Mittel | 64% | — | 57,1 € | 18.630,7 € | vor 19 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| Manifold MarketsDiese Seite | — | 5% | — | — | — | vorgestern |
Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi
When will xAI release Grok 5?
1.0 pts2Mon
58.7%
+1.0pt36.7%
4.6%
50 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen38.197,6 €
24h-Volumen57,1 €
KALSHIRegeln
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$5008. Juli8T Daten25. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Top AI model this week
208.664,8 €claude-opus-4-6-thinking: 2%KALSHI
KALSHI
Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut?
50.861,2 €1480+: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which company has best AI model end of July?
45.603,7 €Anthropic: 99%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Best AI this week
42.753 €Grok: 1%KALSHI
KALSHIBest AI model on August 1?
40.913,9 €Other: 88%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
13.015,3 €Before Oct 1, 2026: 58%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)