Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2027 67.9%+0.6ptFührend unter 17 Optionen
Prognostiker
72
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+3.9 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
8. Aug. 25, 18:37 UTC1. Nov. 26, 03:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 55.558,8 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,4 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 71.641,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 34.809,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Most popular AI this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Grok 5 (xAI) release date?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2027 mit 68% (Stand: 13. September 2026).
- Wann wird Grok 5 (xAI) release date entschieden?
- Grok 5 (xAI) release date soll am 1. November 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Grok 5 (xAI) release date abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: "Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.