Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Transformer-based architecture 95.4%Führend unter 11 Optionen
Transformer-based architecture 95.4%Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet11. Nov. 24, 23:53 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
Manifold MarketsHighest score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Erdős benchmark (68 open Erdős problems) by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2026.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
- I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc. See also: @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9 @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt (this market) @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8
- @/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ @/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o