Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Over 1T parameters 93.2%Führend unter 12 Optionen
Over 1T parameters 93.2%Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet11. Nov. 24, 23:53 UTC1. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHighest score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Erdős benchmark (68 open Erdős problems) by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2027.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
- I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc. See also: @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9
- @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8 (this market)