Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseHas a microphone 99%Führend unter 23 Optionen
Prognostiker
40
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet22. Mai 25, 15:54 UTC31. Dez. 26, 16:49 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen?
KalshiWhat kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀
Manifold MarketsWhat is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device.
- What will be true of the first device they release? This refers to whatever the first hardware product OpenAI + io release.
- If they release multiple devices simultaneously, each answer resolves YES if the answer is true of any of the devices.
- Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Designed to be worn on head' answer:
- Earbuds will be considered as 'worn on head'.
- Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date will be extended until the device is released or confirmed as cancelled.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 63.645,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 63.644,2 €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,5 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 27.401,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 27.401,3 €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Has a microphone mit 99% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? entschieden?
- What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device.