Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseIt will be released by January 2027 100%Führend unter 9 Optionen
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Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+24.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet25. März 26, 18:11 UTC31. Dez. 26, 19:10 UTC
Trends
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Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketRegeln
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+9.0pt80.2%
- Yes-9.0pt19.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,1 Mio. €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-5.0pt53%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-11.0pt53%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+15.0pt39%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.0pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Jacky Rosen+0.5pt38%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+9.0pt37%
- Ruben Gallego-14.5pt35%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-7.0pt54%
- Above 55-22.0pt42%
- Above 58-8.0pt38%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for Clarity Act cloture?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- Manifold Markets bewertet It will be released by January 2027 mit 100% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? entschieden?
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".