Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseExplicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) 92.4%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet4. März 26, 18:36 UTC1. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran nuclear deal [Kalshi] resolves the same as US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill China intervene and offer Iran nuclear power plants, ending the war, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?
- Independent.
- Each answer resolves YES/NO on its own. “At least once” means any single qualifying occurrence in the window triggers YES.
- Only publicly observable official statements/actions and authoritative technical bodies/monitoring (or reporting that clearly cites them) count.
- Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran)
- Resolves YES if an official U.S. or Iranian government statement uses explicit nuclear wording (e.g., “nuclear,” “atomic,” “nuclear weapons,” “nuclear forces”) and also names the other party (“Iran” or “United States/U.S./America”) in the same statement.