Aktuelle Community-Prognose
AfD minority government 40.7%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-2.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet7. Sept. 26, 02:27 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?
KalshiSaxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
Manifold MarketsWill the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?
Manifold MarketsWill Ulrich Siegmund become the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt by the end of the year (2026)?
Manifold MarketsIf nobody is elected minister president of Saxony-Anhalt, will the AfD win an absolute majority in the repeat election?
Manifold MarketsNext Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves to whichever configuration the next minister president (if any) takes the oath of office under, regardless of how long they remain in office.
- If there is ambiguity about whether an agreement between parties is a coalition or just a tolerated minority government, I'll resolve to "coalition" if there is any form of publicly signed contract between the parties, regardless of whether they call it a coalition contract.
- If somebody is voted into the office of minister president without such a contract being public, that resolves to "minority government" for the party of the minister president.
