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  3. Saxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
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Saxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?

PolitikOne-OffEuropeWahl12Mon
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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Below - 1 10.8%
Führend unter 8 Optionen
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2

Fragetyp

multiple choice

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Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden

Veraltet
18. Juni 26, 12:5718. Juni 27, 21:59

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Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Below - 111%

Regeln

n = number of seats AfD wins in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election.

Manifold Markets
  • V = highest valid votes cast for Ulrich Siegmund in any single Minister-President ballot where he's a candidate, across the first government-formation process after that election.
  • Resolves to V − n
  • Abstentions, invalid ballots, and votes for other candidates don't count toward V.
  • Resolves N/A if Siegmund is never a candidate in any Minister-President ballot before a new government is formed.

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Regeln

n = number of seats AfD wins in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election.

Manifold Markets
  • V = highest valid votes cast for Ulrich Siegmund in any single Minister-President ballot where he's a candidate, across the first government-formation process after that election.
  • Resolves to V − n
  • Abstentions, invalid ballots, and votes for other candidates don't count toward V.
  • Resolves N/A if Siegmund is never a candidate in any Minister-President ballot before a new government is formed.