Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet21. Dez. 25, 03:19 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsKRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
PolymarketHow will Trump leave office?
Manifold MarketsWill a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRegeln
[image]https://x.com/colin_fraser/status/2002562599846883694
- Resolves according to statements from Colin, or if he makes none or seems to have succumbed to LLM psychosis himself, my own judgement.
- Broadly interpreted, so e.g. any AI chatbot will count, doesn't have to be ChatGPT.
- There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-8.0pt24%
- October 31-5.5pt17%
- September 30-4.5pt8%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 11,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 355.385,5 €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No84.2%
- Yes15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 56,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 292.267,8 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+2.6pt66%
- October 31+4.5pt41%
- September 30+5.0pt24%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)79%
- New People (NL)-0.1pt17%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- October 31+15.0pt63%
- September 30+19.0pt49%
- September 21+21.5pt42%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+7.0pt92%
- September 18+10.5pt91%
- September 4+11.0pt87%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 85% (Stand: 12. September 2026).
- Wann wird LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? entschieden?
- LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: [image]https://x.com/colin_fraser/status/2002562599846883694