Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)
One-OffWissenschaft
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 86.4%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet6. Feb. 23, 15:45 UTC31. Dez. 99, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegeln
If we cannot find an unambiguous and relevant criteria by 2025, then the question will fallback to being a Keynesian Beauty Contest (KBC).
- Starting the count on 2025-Jan-01, whichever of the below happens first:
- If the market spends 1 calendar month >=80%, then this market would resolve as “YES” representing “1,000 atoms can be sufficient for the experience of suffering, under some design or some circumstance”.
- If the market spends 1 calendar month <=20%, then this market would resolve as “NO” representing “1,000 atoms are never sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design nor any circumstance.”
- But if a less ambiguous and more relevant criterion is found, then this market will “upgrade” to that.
- Any proposed upgrade will be discussed openly, and can be traded.