If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
GeopolitikOne-OffRussland / UkraineEuropa
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 05:51 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 51.2%
Prognostiker
37
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet8. März 22, 09:56 UTC31. Dez. 52, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
PolymarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
PolymarketWill SpaceX announce any sort of deal with Russia or China before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 10 year block on joining NATO or EU?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX announce any sort of deal with Russia or China before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 20 year block on joining NATO or EU?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.
- This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above.
- Or if the year ends without ceasefire
- This question resolves "NO" If - Ukraine complies to these terms - Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms - Ukraine has not broken these terms - Russia violates the treaty anyway within 30 years of signing.
- If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes".
- Mar 8, 11:10am: Use loans if you want to invest into in this market