Manifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: No (99%)
Entschieden: 01.10.2026, 03:03
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Gewinnausgang
No
7 Tage vorher
—
24 Stunden vorher
—
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 01.10.2026, 11:53 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Yes1%
No99%
Gewonnen
Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?
Manifold MarketsWill America receive more tourists from the Middle East in 2026 than in 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Russia proxy conflict expand beyond Ukraine and the Middle East by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any of the following events occur between September 20, 2026, and October 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC), as verified by reports from major international news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or BBC):
- New Sovereign Combatant: A nation not currently engaged in direct state-on-state military strikes in the conflict (such as Pakistan, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia) officially declares war, activates a mutual defense pact (such as the Mecca joint defense agreement), or launches direct, attributed military strikes against another state (such as Iran).
- Weapons of Mass Destruction: The confirmed use of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons by any state or non-state actor in the Middle East.
- New Ground Invasion: A ground invasion launched by Israel, the United States, or Iran into a sovereign country where they do not currently have ground forces actively fighting (e.g., an Israeli ground invasion of Syria, or a U.S. ground invasion of Iran).
- Consensus Escalation: A consensus of reputable global news sources explicitly characterizing a new, unprecedented military event in the region during this timeframe as a "major escalation" or "significant widening of the war."
