Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 92.9%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet25. Nov. 22, 02:05 UTC31. Dez. 29, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Severe nuclear accident in the Zaporizhzhia plant in 2026?
FutuurIAEA-confirmed radioactive contamination accident by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.
- Close date updated to 2029-12-30 11:59 pm
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+11.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-33.9pt55%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 227.421,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 95.250,8 €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.4pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 109.068,9 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7970,9 €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-6.0pt7.7%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 93% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 entschieden?
- Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.