Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.9%
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet11. März 26, 00:36 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China directly engages in military conflict before December 31, 2026. "Direct engagement" means Chinese military forces (PLA, PLAN, PLAAF, or affiliated paramilitary forces) initiate or participate in armed combat operations resulting in exchange of fire or kinetic action against another nation's military or civilian targets.
- Coercive military activities that do not involve direct combat—such as blockades, military exercises, incursions into airspace or territorial waters, or coast guard operations—do not qualify.
- The conflict must involve actual combat operations.
- Resolution sources: Official statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US Department of Defense, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, and major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera).
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 423.353,7 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 95.404,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 92% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 entschieden?
- China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria