Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 70.5%
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139
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet4. Mai 23, 00:55 UTC31. Dez. 26, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Manifold MarketsWill Brandenburg & Doyle's Gravity Modification Results Replicate?
Manifold MarketsIs Earth flat?
PolymarketUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
KalshiWill Duke University rank first overall in 2027?
ForecastExRegeln
As mentioned in this ACX article, there's this study that shows that pretty much every woman exhibits genital arousal towards women.
- There's NO WAY this is true it's UNFAIR if it is I should've been asking girls out WAYYYY more like wtf have I been doing all this time
- Resolves YES if this paper replicates, NO if it gets retracted/debunked, N/A if that's not what this paper says
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 210.956,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 110.461,9 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21.315,2 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5178,9 €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 71% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) entschieden?
- Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As mentioned in this ACX article, there's this study that shows that pretty much every woman exhibits genital arousal towards women.