ARC-AGI-3 Kaggle competition: what will the #1 public leaderboard score be at the final deadline (Nov 2, 2026)?
KIOne-Off9T
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose65% to under 80% 41%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet7. Okt. 26, 06:13 UTC3. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
ARC Prize 2026 runs its ARC-AGI-3 competition on Kaggle: https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2026-arc-agi-3/leaderboard
- The score is RHAE (Relative Human Action Efficiency): how efficiently an agent solves the interactive games compared with a human baseline, where 100% means human-level efficiency.
- The leaderboard has moved fast.
- The Milestone #1 winner scored 1.21%.
- The reported Milestone #2 high (Sept 30) was 27.9%.
- By Oct 4, an open-sourced harness had reportedly taken the top public score to 55.89% (https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328542/20261006/arc-agi-3-scaffolding-beats-model-upgrades-same-ai-two-settings-49x-score-gain.htm).
