Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 99%
Prognostiker
34
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet29. März 26, 05:44 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegeln
Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page.
- It seems to be deliberately designed to produce lower scores: ARC-AGI-3 Scoring Methodology - ARC-AGI-3 Docs.
- Scoring is based on the official leaderboard.
- As of market creation, the top score is around 0.3%:
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 99% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026? entschieden?
- Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page.