Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 99%
Prognostiker
34
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet29. März 26, 05:44 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page.
- It seems to be deliberately designed to produce lower scores: ARC-AGI-3 Scoring Methodology - ARC-AGI-3 Docs.
- Scoring is based on the official leaderboard.
- As of market creation, the top score is around 0.3%:
