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Veraltet4. Okt. 24, 23:38 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
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Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
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PolymarketRegeln
ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.
- Open‑source solvers plateaued near 53 % accuracy, while a high‑compute run of OpenAI’s o3‑preview model achieved roughly 75–88 %, indicating that v1 was largely saturated.
- To raise the bar, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human‑validated “ARC‑AGI‑2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and opened a Kaggle contest capped at about US $0.42 of compute per task.
- The headline rule remains: the first fully open‑source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 set wins the $1 million Grand Prize.
- Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if before January 1, 2027 the ARC Prize Foundation publicly announces and awards any portion of the $1 million Grand Prize to one or more teams.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 57% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027? entschieden?
- Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.