Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
WirtschaftQuarterly2Mon
FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 91%
Nein 91%Marktqualitat
33 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
1113 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
4
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Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This market predicts whether the United States will report negative real GDP growth in at least one of the first three quarters of 2026 (Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026).
- If the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a seasonally adjusted, annualized real GDP growth rate of less than 0% for any of Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026 — based on the BEA's third (final) estimate for that quarter, or the most recent published estimate available by December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC — this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product release.
- Resolution uses the third estimate (final) where available, otherwise the most recent BEA estimate for the quarter as of December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC.
- A consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg) may confirm the BEA figures.