Din | Tahmin Piyasaları

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

0.1 puan (24s)2ay

Evet1%+0.1pt

Hayır99%-0.1pt

Yüksek kalite (86)Dar spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$66,7 Mn

24s Hacim$8,3 B

POLYMARKET

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

2ay

Uruguay98%

Peru97%

Argentina90%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

Orta kalite (51)Dar spreadYüksek açık pozisyonSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$230,5 B

24s Hacim$1,5

54 dakika önce

KALSHI

Who will the next Pope be?

1.0 puan (24s)

Luis Antonio Tagle-1.0pt14%

Pietro Parolin6%

Pierbattista Pizzaballa5%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

Düşük kalite (45)Orta spreadYüksek açık pozisyon

Toplam Hacim$146,2 B

24s Hacim$1,3

54 dakika önce

KALSHI

Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?

0.3 puan (24s)2ay

Evet4%+0.3pt

Hayır96%-0.3pt

Düşük kalite (≤49)Dar spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$24,7 B

24s Hacim—

POLYMARKET

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

Before Jan 1, 2027

2ay

Evet4%

Hayır96%

Düşük kalite (48)Orta spreadOrta açık pozisyonSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$22 B

24s Hacim—

54 dakika önce

KALSHI

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

2ay

Evet10%

Hayır90%

Düşük kalite (33)Spread bilinmiyorDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$106,7

24s Hacim—

FUTUUR

Vatican III in 2026?

2ay

Evet14%

Hayır86%

Düşük kalite (32)Geniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$17,5

24s Hacim—

POLYMARKET

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

2ay

Evet4%

Hayır96%

Düşük kalite (31)Spread bilinmiyorDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$0,1

24s Hacim—

FUTUUR

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

2y

Evet72.3%

Hayır27.7%

Topluluk tahmini263 tahminciTür: binary

4 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Maitreya" before 2030?

3y

Evet42%

Hayır58%

Topluluk tahmini4 tahminciTür: binary

6 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

14g

Evet3.6%

Hayır96.4%

Topluluk tahmini49 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI Cult exists by 2027

6ay

Evet75.9%

Hayır24.1%

Topluluk tahmini182 tahminciTür: binary

7 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

2ay

Evet12.5%

Hayır87.5%

Topluluk tahmini51 tahminciTür: binary

12 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

2ay

Evet7.8%

Hayır92.2%

Topluluk tahmini28 tahminciTür: binary

8 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

2y

Evet2.2%

Hayır97.8%

Topluluk tahmini192 tahminciTür: binary

1 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

3y

Chicago, IL8.3%

New Orleans, LA8.3%

St. Louis, MO8.3%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahminiTür: multiple choice

10 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

Buddhist50%

Hindu50%

Jain50%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahminiTür: multiple choice

9 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

1y

Evet46.6%

Hayır53.4%

Topluluk tahmini21 tahminciTür: binary

2 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the next ecumenical council of the Roman Catholic Church be held?

2025-203010%

2031-204010%

2041-205010%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini1 tahminciTür: multiple choice

16 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

2ay

Old Catholic17.5%

ICAB14.5%

Liberal Catholic14.5%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini2 tahminciTür: multiple choice

5 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Wanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?

9y

202821.9%

202915.1%

20279.7%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini2 tahminciTür: multiple choice

6 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When is a millennial (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

2040s33.7%

2030s11.5%

2020s1%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini2 tahminciTür: multiple choice

5 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When is a zoomer (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

2040s13.9%

2030s5.4%

2020s2%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini2 tahminciTür: multiple choice

14 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?

2ay

Increase in Wars and Rumors of Wars (Matthew 24:6-7)11.9%

Preparation for the Third Temple (Daniel 9:27, Matthew 24:15)8.4%

Rise of the Antichrist (2 Thessalonians 2:3-4)6%

+14 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini3 tahminciTür: multiple choice

11 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Come Judgment Day, will Jose Luis Ricon enter hell due to being heathen?

Evet50%

Hayır50%

Topluluk tahminiTür: binary

10 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will god is real?

2ay

Evet50%

Hayır50%

Topluluk tahminiTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

2y

Evet50%

Hayır50%

Topluluk tahminiTür: binary

11 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Domenic Denicola attend a Mormon Transhumanism Association (MTA) conference by EOY2030?

4y

Evet50%

Hayır50%

Topluluk tahminiTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

1y

Evet14.2%

Hayır85.8%

Topluluk tahmini1 tahminciTür: binary

8 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Andres Gomez Emilson or Joscha Bach watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on 5-MEO-DMT by EOY2045

19y

Evet45.2%

Hayır54.8%

Topluluk tahmini1 tahminciTür: binary

1 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the papal name of Leo XIV's successor?

Alexander20.3%

Leo8.9%

Francis4.4%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini8 tahminciTür: multiple choice

1 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which religion will I identify with at the end of the year?

2ay

conventional Protestantism23.6%

Catholicism/Eastern Orthodoxy/Oriental Orthodoxy20.1%

Buddhism8.7%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini5 tahminciTür: multiple choice

3 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

2ay

Evet90.6%

Hayır9.4%

Topluluk tahmini25 tahminciTür: binary

54 dakika önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

19y

Evet43.1%

Hayır56.9%

Topluluk tahmini1 tahminciTür: binary

54 dakika önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Lillian Tara have her own personal army/cult by EOY 2032?

6y

Evet50%

Hayır50%

Topluluk tahmini1 tahminciTür: binary

10 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Evet20%

Hayır80%

Topluluk tahmini1 tahminciTür: binary

54 dakika önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will basedbeffjezos end up crucified? (nailed to the cross)

Evet40.5%

Hayır59.5%

Topluluk tahmini2 tahminciTür: binary

1 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

3y

Evet48.2%

Hayır51.8%

Topluluk tahmini2 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the LDS (Mormon) Church publicly report membership numbers through 2030?

4y

Evet90.1%

Hayır9.9%

Topluluk tahmini2 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @repligate/janus have an arranged marriage?

Evet47.9%

Hayır52.1%

Topluluk tahmini3 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Evet45.3%

Hayır54.7%

Topluluk tahmini3 tahminciTür: binary

6 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?

3y

Evet31.6%

Hayır68.4%

Topluluk tahmini3 tahminciTür: binary

1 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

3ay

Evet13.5%

Hayır86.5%

Topluluk tahmini3 tahminciTür: binary

9 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jose Luis Ricon be beatified?

Evet5.8%

Hayır94.2%

Topluluk tahmini3 tahminciTür: binary

1 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030?

3y

Evet70%

Hayır30%

Topluluk tahmini4 tahminciTür: binary

54 dakika önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

3ay

Evet17.7%

Hayır82.3%

Topluluk tahmini4 tahminciTür: binary

6 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Evet5.6%

Hayır94.4%

Topluluk tahmini4 tahminciTür: binary

6 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Are ancient afterlife myths interpretations of near death experiences?

Evet59.4%

Hayır40.6%

Topluluk tahmini5 tahminciTür: binary

1 saat önce

MANIFOLD MARKETS