Society & Culture | Tahmin Piyasaları

Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries)

Saint Lucia

93.1%

Niue

89.9%

Sri lanka

69.2%

+65 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini37 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

5% more men than women in the US by 2055?

28y

Hayır

80.2%

Evet

19.8%

Topluluk tahmini9 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is Earth flat?

5ay

Hayır

98%

Evet

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$51,7 B

24s Hacim$101,1

POLYMARKET

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

Hayır

96.8%

Evet

3.2%

Topluluk tahmini67 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Hayır

92.9%

Evet

7.1%

Topluluk tahmini101 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

5ay

Hayır

89.9%

Evet

10.1%

Topluluk tahmini38 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Major news story in Jul 2026?

1.0%6g

At least 1

97%

At least 2

-1.0%8%

At least 3

-1.0%5%

+2 daha fazla sonuç

56 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$48,2 B

24s Hacim$221

KALSHI

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Hayır

52.1%

Evet

47.9%

Topluluk tahmini3.478 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will something happen in 2026?

5ay

Evet

95%

Hayır

Topluluk tahmini164 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2026?

5ay

Evet

94.4%

Hayır

5.6%

Topluluk tahmini39 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)

35y

2061 or later

29.2%

2041-2060

19%

2031-2040

12.6%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini13 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I burnout by the end of 2026?

5ay

Hayır

75.5%

Evet

24.5%

Topluluk tahmini9 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Destiny sue anyone?

9ay

Hayır

54.5%

Evet

45.5%

Topluluk tahmini9 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

5ay

Hayır

95.4%

Evet

4.6%

Topluluk tahmini62 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Evet

55%

Hayır

45%

Topluluk tahmini151 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?

5ay

Hayır

83.4%

Evet

16.6%

Topluluk tahmini6 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

165y

Hayır

89%

Evet

11%

Topluluk tahmini61 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Hayır

58%

Evet

42%

Topluluk tahmini216 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Harry Kane Knighted in 2026

4.0%5ay

Hayır

82%

Evet

+4.0%18%

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likidite

Toplam Hacim$12,5 B

24s Hacim$338,7

KALSHI

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Hayır

96%

Evet

Topluluk tahmini54 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Hayır

62.7%

Evet

37.3%

Topluluk tahmini101 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

5ay

Hayır

94.1%

Evet

5.9%

Topluluk tahmini25 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ]

2ay

Hayır

93%

Evet

Topluluk tahmini102 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Hayır

81.2%

Evet

18.8%

Topluluk tahmini118 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI?

Hayır

94.9%

Evet

5.1%

Topluluk tahmini35 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

10y

Evet

55.4%

Hayır

44.6%

Topluluk tahmini96 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Did Donald Trump have gay sex?

5ay

Hayır

95.2%

Evet

4.8%

Topluluk tahmini49 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

APUSH cheater prop bets

5ay

gets in any kind of trouble

55.2%

has it p1

53.6%

is female

53.3%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini39 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

2028 or later

+0.6%73.6%

2027

-0.4%15.2%

2026

-0.2%7.9%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini9 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the One Piece manga reach over 1400 chapters?

Evet

88.6%

Hayır

11.4%

Topluluk tahmini82 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the price of private education in Japan be cheaper in 5 years?

Evet

53.8%

Hayır

46.2%

Topluluk tahmini14 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

Hayır

72.3%

Evet

27.7%

Topluluk tahmini96 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

8ay

Evet

94.6%

Hayır

5.4%

Topluluk tahmini97 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?

Hayır

90.9%

Evet

9.1%

Topluluk tahmini25 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I major in math?

Hayır

89.9%

Evet

10.1%

Topluluk tahmini47 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Kurt Cobain's death case be reopened?

5ay

Hayır

89.6%

Evet

10.4%

Topluluk tahmini21 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Voynich manuscript be deciphered by 2030? 📖🔎⁉️

Hayır

82.6%

Evet

17.4%

Topluluk tahmini81 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen before King Charles III dies? [Add Answers!]

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

100%

Someone becomes a trillionaire

100%

The United Kingdom holds a general election

87.3%

+8 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini28 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Bobby Fischer be discovered to still be alive before 2030?

Hayır

98.4%

Evet

1.6%

Topluluk tahmini29 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Caroline Ellison next job

5ay

No publicly known employment by EOY 2026

57.6%

Fraudster

50%

Resolves 50% if Ellison marries SBF in 2026, otherwise, resolves to coinflip

50%

+10 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini25 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2026? (Super Smash Bros promotion event)

5ay

Hayır

93.6%

Evet

6.4%

Topluluk tahmini7 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

7978y

Other

+0.1%16.5%

Elon Musk

+0.1%13%

Bill Gates

+0.3%12.5%

+97 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini1.286 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Hayır

98.2%

Evet

1.8%

Topluluk tahmini192 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will any western country deny women the vote in the 21st century?

74y

Hayır

75.4%

Evet

24.6%

Topluluk tahmini20 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

5ay

Hayır

77%

Evet

23%

Topluluk tahmini40 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

10ay

Hayır

79%

Evet

21%

Topluluk tahmini35 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

Evet

62%

Hayır

38%

Topluluk tahmini43 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

Hayır

94.1%

Evet

5.9%

Topluluk tahmini52 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS