Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

1.0% (24h)One-OffWeather7m

PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa

Probabilidade implícita atual

Sim 81%-0.0%

Qualidade do mercado

71 / 100

Qualidade média

Volume 24h

43,3 €

Liquidez

2,9 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

80.0% / 82.0%

Spread

2.5%

Spread apertado

Variação 7d

-5.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 minutos

9/02/26, 23:3110/01/27, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes81%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.

If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,702.01+1.68%

EthereumETH$1,655.40+1.08%

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XRPXRP$1.12-0.20%

BNBBNB$596.31+1.29%

Regras

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.

If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

1.0% (24h)One-OffWeather7m

PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa

Probabilidade implícita atual

Sim 81%-0.0%

Qualidade do mercado

71 / 100

Qualidade média

Volume 24h

43,3 €

Liquidez

2,9 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

80.0% / 82.0%

Spread

2.5%

Spread apertado

Variação 7d

-5.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 minutos

9/02/26, 23:3110/01/27, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes81%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.

If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

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432 or less: 0.4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

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117,1 €

Engineered pandemic: 13.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?

84,5 €

Sim: 28.8%

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What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year?

40,8 €

Genevieve: 4%

KALSHI

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37,4 €

Sim: 25%

POLYMARKET

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,702.01+1.68%

EthereumETH$1,655.40+1.08%

SolanaSOL$65.06+0.76%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+0.94%

XRPXRP$1.12-0.20%

BNBBNB$596.31+1.29%

Regras

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.

If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.