PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
1505+ 67%+17.0ptLíder entre 5 opções
Qualidade do mercado
65 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
6,5 mil €
Liquidez
5 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
0
Variação 7d
+18.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
17/08/26, 23:28 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar).
- Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
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- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut??
- A Polymarket cota 1505+ em 67% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? é resolvido?
- Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.