PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
45%+ 91%Líder entre 4 opções
45%+ 91%Qualidade do mercado
55 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
18,4 mil €
Liquidez
2,3 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
5.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentários
0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 minutos
2/10/26, 22:17 UTC1/07/27, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Ordem mínima (cotas):
- 5
- Incremento de preço:
- 1 pontos percentuais
- Taxas:
- Sim
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Manifold MarketsWill Gemini 4 Argon be released publicly before October 15
Manifold MarketsRegras
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.
- The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
