Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
InflationOne-OffEconomiaEquitiesBusiness & CorporateSociety & Culture2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 64%
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Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado1/08/26, 16:23 UTC14/02/29, 17:23 UTC
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Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
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KalshiRegras
Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )
- Let's say that they did agree under those original conditions.
- Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.
- This resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.
- This resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.
- Bet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)
Mercados abertos
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 323,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 25,3 mil
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 523 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 22 mil
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
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- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,4 mil
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
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- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 64% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander? é resolvido?
- Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander? deverá ser resolvido em 14 de fevereiro de 2029.
- Como Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )