Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 85%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado4/06/26, 16:46 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2026
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US unemployment rate hit more than 6% in any month of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports a seasonally adjusted monthly civilian unemployment rate (U-3) of 5.1% or higher for any month in the calendar year 2026.
- If no monthly rate in 2026 reaches 5.1% or higher, the market resolves to NO.
- Primary Source: The monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary.
- The historical series can also be tracked via FRED (UNRATE).
- Scope: Covers the 12 reference months of 2026 (January 2026 through December 2026).
