Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?
PolíticaOne-OffIAUS PoliticsChinaTecnologiaGeopolítica1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 74.5%
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8
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado13/09/26, 03:26 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, a formal, public agreement is announced that specifically addresses frontier AI safety, governance, capability pacing, security, or military application between:
- The government of the United States and the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC), OR
- One or more major American AI companies (defined as US-headquartered frontier AI developers, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and Microsoft) and either the PRC government or major Chinese AI companies (e.g., Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, MiniMax).
- Qualifying Agreements:
- Must be a dedicated bilateral or plurilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding (MoU), joint declaration, or treaty.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 75% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028? é resolvido?
- Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria