Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
4/02/26, 17:47 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
In which months will there be a day the US gas average is at $4 or below?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Manifold MarketsWhen in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?
Manifold MarketsWill any US federal judge be impeached in 2026?
PredictItWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- A US federal shutdown occurs when funding legislation required to finance the federal government is not enacted before the next fiscal year begins.
- This market resolves YES if any federal shutdown (full or partial) occurs during November 2026.
- A "full" shutdown occurs when none of the 12 annual appropriations are in force, while a "partial" shutdown occurs when only some bills have been enacted, so only unfunded departments and programs shut down.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, or major news outlets confirming a shutdown has begun.
- The market resolves NO if Congress passes and the President signs appropriations bills or a continuing resolution funding the government through November 30, 2026 without a lapse occurring.
Mercados abertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 323,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 25,3 mil
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 523 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 22 mil
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Volume total
- € 611,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 10,5 mil
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+1.0pt6%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 7,7 mil
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- 2026: Trump's dream year?
- Unemployment in September
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026? é resolvido?
- Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria