Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffGeopolíticaUS PoliticsMiddle East21dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.5%
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Atualizado há 3 minutos
5/05/26, 18:40 UTC30/09/26, 22:00 UTC
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On May 3, 2026, Iran proposed a 14-point peace plan to the United States with a 30-day window to resolve outstanding issues.
- President Trump publicly stated he is reviewing the plan but expressed doubt it would lead to a deal.
- Polymarket comparable: 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31' currently at 14% YES.
- RESOLVES YES if the US and Iranian governments sign a formal peace, framework, or comprehensive agreement that incorporates substantive provisions from Iran's 14-point plan on or before 23:59 UTC September 30, 2026.
- Source: official US executive branch and Iranian government statements + reputable press confirmation that the agreement signed is based on the 14-point proposal.
- RESOLVES NO if no agreement is signed by the deadline, OR if an agreement is signed that does NOT substantively incorporate the 14-point plan (e.g., a parallel framework that ignores Iran's proposal).
