Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by November 6, 2026?
One-OffPolítica comercialPolítica dos EUAChinaManifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes (98.3%)
Resolvido: 12 de out. de 2026, 14:00
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 13 de out. de 2026, 00:28 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes98.3%
No1.7000000000000028%
Ganhou
Perdeu
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will China extend its Ga/Ge/Sb export-ban suspension for the US past Nov 27, 2026, as of December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketUS and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHot war between the US and China by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegras
This market resolves YES if, on or before November 6, 2026, the US government (White House, USTR or Commerce) or the Chinese government (MOFCOM or State Council) has officially announced that the November 2025 Busan trade truce will continue beyond its November 10, 2026 expiry.
- An extension of any length counts, as does a successor arrangement that keeps China's October 9, 2025 export controls suspended past November 10, 2026.
- Statements that talks are progressing or that an extension is expected do not count.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Background: after the October 30, 2025 Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, China suspended its October 2025 rare-earth and battery-material export controls until November 10, 2026 (MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025), and the US suspended matching measures for one year.
- Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington runs September 23-25, 2026, with the bilateral meeting on September 24.
