Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 80.3%
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Desatualizado23/11/23, 23:29 UTC1/01/30, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of OpenAI or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 80% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: "US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).