Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleição3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 54.1%
Previsores
36
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado14/07/23, 20:55 UTC31/12/29, 16:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Which public figures will declare they believe aliens have been hidden by the US government?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegras
They don't have to actually declassify *everything* to resolve YES.
- It's enough that they make some substantial declassifications and do it in a way that seems intended to give the impression that they are "declassifying everything".
- Redactions are fine, national security exceptions are fine, this is ultimately more about political perception than reality.
- If a presidential candidate pledges to declassify everything and then on winning election does some significant declassifications in a way that seems intended to fulfill that campaign promise that would presumptively resolve YES.
- In case of ambiguity I may resolve to market IF I think the market price seems reasonable and not an artifact of manipulation or poor liquidity.
- Otherwise I will just make my own best judgement.