WIll the United States Economy enter a recession by 2030?
One-OffEconomiaPolítica comercialPolítica dos EUA3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 74.3%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado12/01/26, 02:08 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee officially declares that a recession occurred at any point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2029.
- A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
- The NBER's approach is retrospective and may take several months to announce official peak and trough dates.
- The market resolves NO if no recession is declared by the NBER by the end of 2030.
- Resolution source: NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee
