Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 94.6%
Previsores
137
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado9/06/25, 21:24 UTC1/02/27, 04:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
Manifold MarketsThe End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026
Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketRegras
This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026".
- Resolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed.
- Temporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes.
- Temporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim.
- A full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.
- Note: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026? é resolvido?
- Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2027.
- Como Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026".