Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86%
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado2/07/26, 00:12 UTC4/12/26, 13:25 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiSeptember Unemployment Rate
PolymarketRegras
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for November 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial November 2026 release before resolution.
- If the November 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the November 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by December 11, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation context reported a May 2026 U-3 unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and a 4.3-4.5 percent range since July 2025.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["November 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, and demographic markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the November reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the November 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-12-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS schedule pages may return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; recheck the official BLS schedule/source pages before live creation.", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 77%
Mercados abertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt64.7%
- No change-12.0pt34.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 97,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,8 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 702,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 91 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 400 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%-1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-8.0pt26%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 34,5 mil
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP79%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-5.0pt62%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,3 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No97%
- Yes-3.0pt3%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,9 mil
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- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
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- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 86% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? é resolvido?
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? deverá ser resolvido em 4 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Onde mais Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Kalshi.