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Sim 61.3%
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27
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 18 minutos
2/09/23, 06:37 UTC1/01/30, 07:28 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves Yes, if, before 2030, a poll conducted by one of the leading French opinion polling firms (e. g., ipsos) reports that IA Doom, or other formulation of the Intelligence Artificielle-related existential risk, ranks in the top 5 of concerns of French resident for the near future.
- Will resolves No, if the IA concerns are mostly about impact on the economy, unemployment or internet Spam rather than total human annihilation.
- If no polls is conducted, clearly this concern is not part of the French zeitgeist, and this thus resolves to No. En cas d'ambiguïté, un résolution N/À est possible.
