Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-Off1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86.4%
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado9/03/26, 03:02 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC
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As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The current SOTA model was released without safety evals is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 86% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é resolvido?
- Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.