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73
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado11/09/23, 09:11 UTC1/01/50, 15:59 UTC
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FutuurRegras
The criteria for resolving yes is that the Arctic must be fully ice-free at any point in time between now and the start of 2050.
- The Arctic does not need to be fully gone by the year 2050, it just needs to be ice-free at a moment in time.
- Whether the Arctic is fully ice-free will be based on news articles from reputable sources.
- If there's any controversy, I will discuss about it with Manifold users in the comments.
- As a last resort of resolution criteria, this question will resolve Yes when the Arctic ice coverage (at a threshold 15% ice density) falls below 100,000 km squared, as reported in numbers from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
- The Arctic has less ice cover in summer than in winter, so it is plausible that in summer, the Arctic will be fully ice-free, but in winter, it will reappear.
Mercados abertos
Space
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- Yes93.1%
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- OpenAI+0.5pt9%
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- 2027+0.5pt54%
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- Volume total
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de (M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 58% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando (M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050? é resolvido?
- (M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2050.
- Como (M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The criteria for resolving yes is that the Arctic must be fully ice-free at any point in time between now and the start of 2050.