Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

0.5% (24h)TecnologiaOne-OffSpace Weather5m

PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Probabilidade implícita atual

Sim 10%

Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

2,5 €

Liquidez

3,4 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

9.0% / 10.0%

Spread

11.1%

Spread amplo

Variação 7d

+0.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 15 minutos

31/12/25, 18:1931/12/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Yes10%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S.

Tendência de volume

2 de jul.22d de dados26 de jul.

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Global Average Temperature July 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)

114,9 €

July 2026 less than 1.095C: 0.3%

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Regras

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S.

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

0.5% (24h)TecnologiaOne-OffSpace Weather5m

PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Probabilidade implícita atual

Sim 10%

Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

2,5 €

Liquidez

3,4 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

9.0% / 10.0%

Spread

11.1%

Spread amplo

Variação 7d

+0.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 15 minutos

31/12/25, 18:1931/12/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Yes10%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S.

Tendência de volume

2 de jul.22d de dados26 de jul.

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385,5 €

Sim: 31%

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Global Average Temperature July 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)

114,9 €

July 2026 less than 1.095C: 0.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$65,414.09+1.63%

EthereumETH$1,953.79+4.22%

SolanaSOL$76.63+2.82%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0734+2.28%

BNBBNB$575.00+1.08%

XRPXRP$1.11+1.37%

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Regras

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S.