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Desatualizado16/09/24, 19:43 UTC31/12/26, 22:59 UTC
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FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.
- Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged.
- Learn more about the competition here: https://arcprize.org/competition.
- 2025 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1
- 2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 55% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? é resolvido?
- Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.