Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 56.7%
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90
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado4/10/24, 23:38 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
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ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.
- Open‑source solvers plateaued near 53 % accuracy, while a high‑compute run of OpenAI’s o3‑preview model achieved roughly 75–88 %, indicating that v1 was largely saturated.
- To raise the bar, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human‑validated “ARC‑AGI‑2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and opened a Kaggle contest capped at about US $0.42 of compute per task.
- The headline rule remains: the first fully open‑source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 set wins the $1 million Grand Prize.
- Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if before January 1, 2027 the ARC Prize Foundation publicly announces and awards any portion of the $1 million Grand Prize to one or more teams.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 57% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027? é resolvido?
- Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.