Previsão da comunidade atual
Sim 66.8%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado5/11/24, 11:09 UTC28/02/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
PredictItWill Marco Rubio win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWill the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsDemocrats win 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsRegras
TL;DR - 2020 would resolve NO because of the January 6 insurrection.
- For this question, "states" includes DC since it also votes for President, and "the actual result" is that declared by credible news media.
- This question is a conjunction of all of the following:
- in each state, polling places open normally, everywhere they're usually set up, plus mail-in/drop box voting where applicable;
- in each state, votes are able to be cast normally and they're all included in the count;
- in each state, the officially proclaimed result of the vote matches the actual one;
