Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIATecnologia1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.7%
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Atualizado há 21 horas
Desatualizado15/03/26, 01:12 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our LLM policy.) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abertos
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- Claude-0.3pt61.4%
- ChatGPT22.8%
- Grok-2.0pt5.9%
+5 mais resultados
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-1.0pt62.6%
- 2027-1.5pt30.3%
- 2026-2.5pt7.1%
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- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-4.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+7.0pt79%
- claude-opus-5-max+2.0pt5%
- claude-opus-5-high-2.0pt4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202797%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 202794%
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- Volume total
- € 1,4 mi
POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 30-3.0pt87%
- October 31-5.0pt72%
- September 30-18.0pt11%
+4 mais resultados
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 94% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é resolvido?
- Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.