Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
PolíticaOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.7%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado27/04/26, 20:31 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRegras
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Update on the Alex Bores campaign is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsKALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84%
- Republican Party16%
- Volume total
- € 25,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 812,4 mil
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.4%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 564 mil
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+1.0pt46.6%
- D-House, R-Senate35.9%
- R-House, R-Senate-1.0pt15.5%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-1.4pt98%
- Dan McKee+1.3pt2%
- Gregory Stevens-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- € 734,4 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva52%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.3pt45.1%
- Renan Santos+0.8pt2%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 97% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é resolvido?
- Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.