Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.9%
Previsores
98
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado3/01/26, 03:16 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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LimitlessRegras
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown or ceases to exist as the governing authority of Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires a change in the fundamental structure of state power—either through popular uprising, military coup, or other means—resulting in the end of clerical rule under the current system.
- The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic remains the de facto governing authority at year-end, regardless of internal instability, leadership changes within the system, or concessions made to protesters.
- Mass demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, but quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule.
- The country's rial currency lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025, with inflation standing at about 50 percent in December.
