Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.5%
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado4/07/23, 21:07 UTC2/01/30, 01:16 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.
- If humanity is not around for AI unrelated reasons then this market resolves to YES.
- If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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- Volume 24h
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will humanity wipe out humanity before the year 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will humanity wipe out humanity before the year 2030? é resolvido?
- Will humanity wipe out humanity before the year 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will humanity wipe out humanity before the year 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.